SDAC Market Watch Spring 2026

Why the SDAC Market Watch?

SDAC is the largest coupled electricity market area, and its price keeps providing the most robust price signal in Europe. Analysing it is essential because day-ahead prices signal short-term supply-demand balance, inform trading and hedging decisions, and guide operational and investment choices across interconnected European power systems. The SDAC Market Watch includes:

• Day-ahead price developments across the entire SDAC area and the fundamentals driving them 
• Price convergence levels across Capacity Calculation Regions
• Occurrence of negative prices and reasons for year-on-year changes
• Tendencies in net positions of individual bidding zones
• The impacts of allocation and active constraints on price convergence 

Key insights for spring 2026

Following a winter marked by declining prices and early geopolitical impacts, spring 2026 paints a more complex picture of Europe’s electricity markets, with rising prices, increased volatility, and shifting regional dynamics across the Single Day-Ahead Market Coupling (SDAC).

Average SDAC prices in spring 2026 were ~15 €/MWh higher than last spring, reversing the downward trend observed during winter 2025/26. This increase was particularly pronounced in Central Europe, while the Baltics stood out with lower prices. Southern Norway experienced a sharp price surge of 45–65 €/MWh, driven by low hydro reservoir levels following a cold and dry winter.

The Middle East conflict, already visible in winter through rising gas prices, continued to shape market fundamentals this spring. Gas and oil prices increased by ~50% since winter, yet their impact on SDAC prices remained relatively contained. Thanks to a more diversified energy mix and strong renewable generation, average prices declined from winter levels — but price volatility increased significantly.

Natural gas dependency across Europe remained remarkably stable (~11.1% of load), confirming the structural reliance identified in the previous report. While countries such as Italy, the Netherlands, and Greece continue to depend heavily on gas, others — including the Baltics, Denmark, and Croatia — reduced their exposure compared to 2025.

Spring is typically associated with negative prices — and while the frequency remained broadly stable, an important new trend emerged:
👉Negative prices became more extreme.
Central and Eastern Europe saw more frequent very low price events, driven by a combination of:

• High renewable generation
• Limited system flexibility
• Structural market incentives

This resulted in the SDAC price floor being lowered from -500 to -600 €/MWh.

At the same time, price convergence across regions weakened in some areas, continuing the divergence already observed in winter. Rising prices in Italy and the Nordics led to worsening convergence in several Capacity Calculation Regions, while the Baltics saw improved convergence, supported by restored interconnector capacity between Finland and Estonia.

In terms of cross-border flows, net positions showed stronger extremes than in previous springs. Countries such as Belgium, Italy North, and Portugal increased their import positions, while France strengthened its role as a key exporter and Germany reduced its dependency on imports.

Finally, allocation constraints in Poland, which limited the market significantly in previous periods, declined sharply this spring. This reflects Poland’s shift toward lower relative prices and stronger export positions, easing pressure on cross-border capacity.

👉 Explore the full SDAC Market Watch to understand the evolving dynamics shaping Europe’s electricity markets.