Winter Outlook 2023-2024

On November 16, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG jointly presented their winter outlook for 2023-2024. Last winter, the EU managed to avert the worst consequences of the energy crisis thanks to the coordinated action on securing gas supplies across the region but also thanks to the highly interconnected markets allowing timely electricity exchanges between neighbours. But as this winter is approaching, are we out of the woods yet?

Key messages

We can all breathe a sigh of relief: no major pan-European concerns for system security have been identified. This is, more than anything, thanks to more favourable outage schedules and stagnant demand across Europe. In addition, higher renewable generation and expansion managed to compensate for the phaseout of thermal generation. Last winter, it was particularly low availability of French nuclear generation that exacerbated supply issues in the region. This winter, its availability is projected to increase by about 30% as compared to winter 2023. At the same time, hydro reservoir levels are also expected to increase in most European countries this year.

ENTSO-E did, however, identify more localised risks in Ireland and Malta as well as “traces of risks” in Finland due to tight supply margins and regional risks in France, Belgium and the UK.

Source: ENTSO-E & ENTSO-G 2023

Last year’s energy crisis was provoked by the gas crisis which had a major spillover effect on the electricity system. In the upcoming winter, ENTSO-E expects the reliance on gas to decrease by about 10% while an additional 10% can be achieved if energy savings targets are re-introduced.

In the gas sector, storage levels remain exceptionally high, the filling levels as of October 1st, reached 96%. These can however be rapidly depleted in case of a harsh winter or of a full Russian supply disruption. ENTSO-G thus highlights the importance of demand response measures, increase in alternative (LNG and pipeline) supply sources as well as cross-border cooperation to overcome the coming winter season.

Background

ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G are tasked with conducting biannual outlook analyses, in summer and in winter, to anticipate and mitigate potential risks to system adequacy. More information can be found here.